The College Football Playoff field is set, and while many projections had Georgia as the top seed and Clemson in the fourth spot, the final rankings don’t line up with those predictions. What does this tell us about what may happen?
The “2021-22 college football predictions” is a blog that predicts the field of teams for the College Football Playoff. The blog does this by looking at past conference championship results and how they correlate with playoff fields in the future.
For the last time in the 2021 college football season, the Allstate Playoff Predictor is running scenarios.
With just conference championships left, there aren’t many different game outcomes to consider. But what about the College Football Playoff? That may still go in a variety of directions.
To anticipate the selection given a certain result, we’ll utilize our trusted model, which is based on the committee’s prior behavior and takes into account FPI, strength of record, number of losses, conference championships (or independent status), and current CFP rankings. Always keep in mind that the Allstate Playoff Predictor is based on probabilities rather than absolutes: After all, it’s forecasting the decisions of people in a Texas conference room.
Finally, keep in mind that the outcome of these conference championship games may determine final forecasts. The difference between losing by a field goal and losing by three touchdowns might be significant. So, depending on how these games play out, our forecasts for a certain scenario might change between now and Sunday morning.
The winners are Georgia, Michigan, Oklahoma State, and Cincinnati.
Probability of occurrence: 27%
Georgia and Michigan are a certain conclusion, while Cincinnati isn’t far behind at 88 percent. The real issue is who, among Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, and Alabama, will take the last position. Although the Predictor favors Oklahoma State, it gives each of the three teams a chance.
The odds of the Cowboys, Fighting Irish, and Crimson Tide, respectively, are 64 percent, 29 percent, and 19 percent (note that this adds up to over 100 percent because it still gives a non-zero shot that the committee punts Cincinnati out of the top four).
Why did Notre Dame get the nod over Alabama? There are two explanations for this. First, beyond strength of record, the actual number in the loss column has traditionally had an outsized impact on the committee — and Alabama is projected to finish fifth in strength of record in this scenario nonetheless. Second, although neither team is a league champion, Notre Dame had little chance of becoming one as an independent. Previously, this has provided the Fighting Irish an advantage against conference non-champions. All of this is to say that Alabama is obviously one of the top four teams in college football (the Crimson Tide are ranked third in FPI, with a large gap between them and the No. 4 team, Michigan).
The winners are Georgia, Michigan, Oklahoma State, and Houston.
Probability of occurrence: 6%
We were looking at three teams contending for one position in the prior scenario. With Cincinnati out of the picture, the same three clubs are battling for the last two berths. For the aforementioned reasons, the Predictor prefers Oklahoma State and Notre Dame over Alabama’s two-loss non-champ, but the Crimson Tide would still be a coin flip to get in. According to the model, Oklahoma State has a 79 percent probability of making the NCAA tournament, Notre Dame has a 70 percent chance, and Alabama has a 50 percent chance.
It’s worth noting that the model is unaware of Brian Kelly’s departure, which Gary Barta indicated would be taken into account by the committee (which is absurd, but another story altogether).
The winners are Georgia, Michigan, Baylor, and Cincinnati.
Probability of occurrence: 15%
In this matchup, it’s Notre Dame vs. Alabama. The Predictor gives Notre Dame a tiny advantage for the same reasons described above, but believes the committee might vote either way: Notre Dame received 61 percent of the vote, while Alabama received 42 percent. On Selection Day, this would have been one of the most intriguing head-to-head comparisons we’d seen.
Georgia, Iowa, Oklahoma State, and Cincinnati are the teams to beat.
Probability of occurrence: 8%
There’s a lot of uncertainty here, but the model would put Georgia, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, and Alabama as the teams with the best chances of making the playoffs. However, any Georgia plus three combination is feasible.
The Georgia Bulldogs are a certainty to enter the College Football Playoff regardless of the result of the SEC title game. Sportswire Icon
Alabama, Michigan, Oklahoma State, and Cincinnati are the teams to beat.
Probability of occurrence: 14%
In Alabama, Georgia, and Michigan, there are three locks. It all comes down to the last position, and the Predictor thinks Cincinnati will get it, in part because the committee has the Bearcats in the top four already. Despite the fact that both teams won conference titles, Oklahoma State would have to overtake the Bearcats.
The winners are Georgia, Michigan, Baylor, and Houston.
Probability of occurrence: 3%
As a result, the selection process will be a snoozefest, with Georgia, Michigan, Alabama, and Notre Dame all making the playoffs.
Georgia, Iowa, Oklahoma State, and Houston are among the winners.
Probability of occurrence: 2%
Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma State, and Notre Dame are the most probable quartet, according to the Predictor, however the algorithm still offers Michigan a chance even if they lose since the Wolverines are now ranked second.
Georgia, Iowa, Baylor, and Cincinnati are the champions.
Probability of occurrence: 5%
Replace Oklahoma State with Cincinnati in the same way as before.
Alabama, Michigan, Oklahoma State, and Houston are the teams to beat.
Probability of occurrence: 3%
This is really thin. Alabama, Georgia, and Michigan have all shown interest. However, Oklahoma State is only ahead of Notre Dame in this poll, with 53 percent to 49 percent.
Alabama, Michigan, Baylor, and Cincinnati all come out on top.
Probability of occurrence: 8%
This sets the stage for a rather obvious choice between Alabama, Michigan, Georgia, and Cincinnati. The Predictor won’t rule out the possibility that the committee finds a way to place Notre Dame ahead of the Bearcats, but that would be a stretch intellectually, even for the committee, given their current rankings.
Alabama, Iowa, Oklahoma State, and Cincinnati are the teams to beat.
Probability of occurrence: 4%
Georgia, Alabama, and Cincinnati are all quite likely to be in or better, so it’s Oklahoma State vs. Notre Dame in this one. In this situation, the model favors Oklahoma State 57 percent to 39 percent. Why is the spread bigger than it was in the prior Cowboys vs. Fighting Irish matchup? That, I believe, is just simulation variance, which occurs with projections.
Alabama, Iowa, Baylor, and Cincinnati are the champions.
Probability of occurrence: 2%
Alabama, Georgia, and Cincinnati have all been accepted. Notre Dame would most certainly take the last position, but the Predictor isn’t ready to give up on Michigan completely. Because Michigan could slip two positions and still make the playoffs, the Wolverines have a shot to hold off the Fighting Irish for the last berth.
The winners are Alabama, Michigan, Baylor, and Houston.
Probability of occurrence: 2%
Alabama, Georgia, Michigan, and Notre Dame are the teams to watch.
Alabama, Iowa, Oklahoma State, and Houston are among the winners.
Probability of occurrence:
Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma State, and Notre Dame are the most probable candidates. The Predictor, once again, will not rule out Michigan. The model’s ability to make precise forecasts is likewise quite dubious.
Georgia, Iowa, Baylor, and Houston are the champions.
Probability of occurrence: 1%
The model will not generate specific team statistics since this is also very improbable, but Georgia, Alabama, and Notre Dame should all be in. What is the identity of the fourth team? Michigan, according to the Predictor, is the team to beat since the Wolverines are presently ranked No. 2 and have a chance to stay there. However, if the committee wants to go insane, the door is wide open.
Is this how Baylor will get in? Oregon? What about Ohio State? Iowa? The Predictor isn’t convinced (if it had to pick among those teams it would guess the Buckeyes, who are clearly the best of the group in terms of FPI ranking).
Alabama, Iowa, Baylor, and Houston are the champions.
Probability of occurrence:
Almost identical to the situation above, since it won’t matter who wins the SEC championship game if all of the other favorites have fallen.
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The “ncaa football rankings 2021” is a prediction of what the College Football Playoff field will look like in 2021. It uses results from the 2018 and 2019 seasons to predict who will make it into the playoff.
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